Politics: Top 6 Surprises from Last Night
This post, submitted by TNG Associate Contributor Corey, is the final part in a series of political countdowns.
It’s been a wild ride, and it’s finally over.
Now, while the nation sobers up after a night of celebrating or going into inconsolable depression, I’d like to take a look at some of the bigger surprises from the night, even as some of the races have yet to be called. I tried to keep it short, as my brain actually died last night. Join us after below the fold for the final installment of my election-related countdowns… I hope you’ve enjoyed reading them as much as I have quasi-loserishly loved writing them.
6. The Gotcha Media Polling Was Pretty Damn Accurate
The McCain camp has been crying about how wrong the polls are for weeks and weeks, but many of us on the other side, or folks just generally into politics, were also worried the polls could be off. Were they measuring African American and youth turnout correctly? What about people who only have cell phones and don’t get called by most pollsters? What about a “Bradley Effect” – white voters who tell pollsters they’ll vote for an African American candidate but don’t do so when they get into that polling booth? It all turned out to be for naught – check out the best polling site on the planet, Pollster.com, and you’ll see that things were pretty much spot on.
5. Pennsylvania’s Early Call
I, for one, was worried that Pennsylvania could be close – McCain has spent a lot of time and money there this year, Jeremiah Wright ads had started airing, and Obama had trouble in the primary there. However, some folks say those Wright ads actually increased turnout for the Dems and didn’t change any minds, and McCain’s money appears to have been wasted. When PA got called immediately after the polls closed – based on exit polling data – I knew Obama had won the election. McCain had called PA his only path to victory, and I was shocked that they were able to call it so early – that the margin had been so big for Obama they were confident to call it game over.
4. Disappointing Senate Returns
As a Democrat, the senate returns were pretty disappointing. We picked up a few seats, but it was not apocalyptic for the Republicans as many predicted it would be. The AP just called Minnesota for Republican Norm Coleman, who was in a weird three-way race with comedian Al Franken (D) and an independent candidate [UPDATE: AP says a recount will be necessary]; it looks like Republicans probably also held seats in heavily democratic Oregon, and maybe even Alaska, where the GOP incumbent was just convicted of a felony. Perhaps people got scared of a super democratic majority and a democratic president, because normally in this environment, red seats in blue states should have flipped much more easily. (I suggest Politico for following updates on the final races to be called.)
3. Proposition 8
It’s not too shocking that voters in socially conservative Florida and Arizona passed gay marriage bans (although that is a sad setback for both, especially considering the large gay populations in Orlando, Miami, Phoenix, etc.) What’s really disappointing is that Prop 8 seems to have passed in California, meaning that gay marriage will be made illegal. It still hasn’t been totally called – you can track the progress of the count at the LA Times website – but I wouldn’t keep hopes up very high. I find it really upsetting that in a state where Obama won something like 61-37%, more than half of voters still think that everyone shouldn’t have equal rights. It’s a sobering moment for gays (and all progressive folks) in our country that even in a state like California, and even after the courts had decided on giving gay rights, and even when the Republican governor of the state was against the ban, the prejudice against LGBT people is very, very strong.
2. Drivers Were Nice to Me!!
I led a mob of students from Georgetown to the White House, running down the sidewalks and sometimes down the street, right after the results were called. When we came to intersections, people in my mob wanted to stop, but I decided it’d be smart to run out in the streets anyway. And you know what? Cars stopped. Even cab drivers smiled, honked horns, and didn’t run me over. Imagine how much nicer it’d be as a pedestrian and a runner in DC if Barack Obama won the presidency every day.
1. Obama Won. THE PRESIDENCY. BARACK OBAMA. LIKE FOR REAL.
Despite the national political climate, despite the state of the economy, and despite his incredibly well-run campaign, Obama could never really be considered anything but an underdog in this election. Our history as a nation plagued by racial divide was an incredibly strong force to overcome, and I worried all along that in the end, America might not be able to get over its fears. Many people felt like I did, but we still supported Obama in the primary, worked our hearts out, and tried our damnedest to win this election, knowing that win or lose it would be a moment of great triumph for our nation. And I think it’s because of this faith people kept that, despite the odds, an African American was able to win the presidency last night by a margin of over 7 million votes. It’s an incredible day, it’s been an incredible election, and it’s a reflection – despite all the faults – of the incredible nature of our country.
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For Oregon, it’s a vote by mail only state, so the returns only show who won a few days later.
Dem. Merkley won in Oregon.
I’m a freshman at American and I too joined the throngs of people at the White House.
There was an overwhelming amount of Obama Pride stickers and rainbow pride in general there which i thought was pretty awesome.
Crazy experience.
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